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Bitcoin-Proxy Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Not Included in S&P 500
The "Bitcoin Treasury Company" Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, is one of the largest 110 U.S. corporations. However, to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must not only meet market capitalization requirements but also demonstrate profitability over the past four quarters. Despite reporting a net profit of $10 billion due to a new accounting rule for cryptocurrencies and a significant increase in Bitcoin prices in Q2, the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee decided against including Strategy in the index.
As of September 22, AppLovin, Robinhood, and Emcor Group will be added to the S&P 500, while MarketAxess Holdings, Caesars Entertainment, and Enphase Energy will be removed. Following this announcement, Strategy's stock (MSTR) fell approximately 3% in after-hours trading, indicating that the market had not fully priced in the potential inclusion. Historically, it is not uncommon for the committee to reject companies that meet the criteria, as was the case with Tesla.
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“The committee has not commented on the rejection of Strategy, but it is likely that they deemed the reported profits, which are closely tied to Bitcoin price fluctuations, as unsustainable.”
Even without being part of the S&P 500, Strategy continues to hold an impressive 636,505 BTC, while other companies in the index, such as Tesla, Block, and Coinbase, also have Bitcoin on their balance sheets. The absence of Strategy from the index could hinder its business model, as a high stock price is crucial for capital raising through new stock issuance.
In summary, despite meeting the criteria for S&P 500 inclusion, Strategy was not accepted, which may impact its future capital-raising efforts.
German Government Overlooks Bitcoin Worth Billions: 45,000 BTC Remain Undetected
In early 2024, German authorities made headlines by seizing nearly 49,858 Bitcoin from the operators of Movie2K, a well-known piracy website. This seizure was one of the largest crypto confiscations in Europe, and the government opted to sell the assets. By July 2024, the German government sold the Bitcoin for approximately $2.89 billion at an average sale price of $57,900 per coin. However, new findings suggest that over 45,000 Bitcoin, valued at over $5 billion, remain in wallets associated with the Movie2K operators.
This revelation raises serious questions about whether the government ever had full control over the assets or if the operators managed to secure part of their holdings beyond the reach of law enforcement. The remaining Bitcoin is worth more than the amount successfully sold by Germany, highlighting a significant oversight.
“The extent of this potential oversight is hard to ignore, as authorities celebrated a liquidation of $2.9 billion while possibly overlooking assets worth nearly double.”
This situation underscores the need for governments and law enforcement to enhance their collaboration with blockchain intelligence firms and improve their digital forensic capabilities.
In summary, the German government may have overlooked a significant amount of Bitcoin during its seizure, raising questions about its asset management practices.
Bitcoin Forecast: U.S. Real Estate Crisis Could Fuel Crypto Rally
Bitcoin is currently stabilizing above the $110,000 mark, showing resilience despite short-term fluctuations. Analysts are now focusing on structural developments that could further boost the market, particularly a looming real estate crisis in the U.S. This crisis could strengthen Bitcoin's role as a store of value and exert upward pressure on its price.
Analysts from Swan highlight the close connection between the real estate market, monetary policy, and cryptocurrencies. The rapidly declining affordability of housing in the U.S. is pushing millions of households to their limits. If the real estate market falters, banks, the construction industry, and credit markets will also come under pressure.
“Bitcoin could absorb the monetary premium as capital that once flowed into real estate shifts towards Bitcoin.”
As the Federal Reserve may be forced to lower interest rates to stabilize markets, this could lead to increased liquidity, weakening the dollar and fueling inflation concerns. Bitcoin, being a finite asset, stands in contrast to this scenario, potentially attracting more investment as confidence in the dollar wanes.
In summary, the potential U.S. real estate crisis may drive more investors towards Bitcoin, enhancing its appeal as a hedge against inflation.
Bitcoin Debacle: Five BTC Treasury Firms That Could Ruin You
More than 100 companies are currently investing millions, if not billions, into Bitcoin, inspired by the success of Michael Saylor and his former software company, Strategy. However, not all publicly traded treasury firms have benefited from Bitcoin acquisitions. Five companies, in particular, have seen their investors burn through cash.
- GameStop: After announcing the purchase of 4,710 Bitcoin for $513 million, GameStop's stock has only increased by 1.1% over the year, leaving investors down approximately 35%.
- Remixpoint: This Japanese company, which holds 1,273 BTC, has seen its stock drop 57% from its yearly high, despite a 120% increase over the year.
- Empery Digital: This electric vehicle manufacturer has seen its stock plummet over 90% since announcing its Bitcoin treasury strategy, despite holding 4,019 BTC.
- Ming Shing Group: This construction firm has lost nearly 60% of its stock value, even after announcing plans to acquire 4,250 BTC.
- Sequans Communications: This French semiconductor company has seen its stock drop 98% since its IPO, despite plans to acquire 100,000 BTC by 2030.
In summary, while some companies have thrived with Bitcoin investments, others have faced significant losses, highlighting the risks associated with BTC treasury strategies.
Bitcoin on the Brink of a Crash? Analyst Predicts Over -50%
Bitcoin is currently undergoing a correction, and according to a new analyst assessment, it may soon drop further. After reaching a record high of around $124,000, Bitcoin has recently fallen below the $110,000 mark, causing concern among investors who see this as a potential signal for a bear market.
Analyst Joao Wedson warns that Bitcoin has about a month left before the next downward trend begins. He anticipates a final peak in October, potentially pushing Bitcoin to around $140,000, followed by a significant correction that could see prices fall to approximately $50,000 by 2026, representing a decline of over 50%.
“The current cycle is not directly comparable to previous phases due to the entry of institutional investors and massive speculation surrounding Bitcoin ETFs.”
While some experts remain bullish on Bitcoin's future, the uncertainty surrounding its trajectory continues to grow.
In summary, analysts predict a potential crash for Bitcoin, with significant price declines expected in the near future.
Sources:
- Bitcoin-Proxy Strategy (ehem. MicroStrategy) kommt nicht in den S&P 500
- Deutsche Regierung übersieht Bitcoin im Milliardenwert: 45.000 BTC bleiben unentdeckt
- Bitcoin-Prognose: US-Immobilienkrise könnte Krypto-Rallye befeuern
- Bitcoin-Debakel: Fünf BTC-Treasury-Firmen, die dich ruinieren
- Bitcoin vor dem Crash? Analyst erwartet mehr als -50%
- Darknet-Bestellungen und Hausdurchsuchungen vermeiden? Wie handeln? Zahlen mit Bitcoin
